Nonstationarity in the Magnitude and Seasonality of Extreme Precipitation

Shaleen Jain, University of Maine

Abstract

In a variable and changing climate, an understanding of the changes in extreme precipitation poses a critical challenge at local to regional scales. On the one hand, precipitation‐related impacts have the potential cause disruption in ecosystem function, compromised infrastructure, and major concerns for public safety. At the same time, diagnostic and attribution studies seeking to characterize the nature of precipitation change and causal factors require: (a) new statistical methodologies to accommodate time‐varying or nonstationary nature of extreme event statistics, (b) careful characterization of the seasonality of precipitation extremes and an appraisal of dynamical process (including, but not limited to regional teleconnections) representation in climate models, and (c) quantitative characterization of the relative influence of extreme precipitation stemming from tropical cyclone, which are less well represented in a majority of coupled climate models.